SCORING AND THREAT SYMBOLS
The likelihood scale is a measure of how likely we believe something is to happen or be true based on the available information. This rating can change as new information is identified or the quality of information is re-evaluated.
Very Unlikely (<20%)
Unlikely (20% to 40%)
Moderately Likely (40% to 60%)
Likely (60% to 80%)
Very Likely (>80%)
Veracity describes how trustworthy a source is. Factors considered include whether it is a primary source, historical accuracy of source, and source access.
Very Low (<20%)
Low (20% to 40%)
Moderate (40% to 60%)
High (60% to 80%)
Very High (>80%)
The assessed threat level on a scale of 1 – 5:
- Little to no impact on the lives and livelihoods of people. (Example: Rain storm)
- Minor impact on the lives and livelihoods of people. (Example: Poor weather conditions resulting in higher food prices)
- Moderate impact on the lives and livelihoods of people. (Example: Intermittent food shortages)
- Severe impact on the lives and livelihoods of people. (Example: Hot civil war)
- Civilization ending threat. (Example: Global nuclear war)
When the threat is assessed to happen.
The assessed chance a threat will occur.