“A whistleblower has come out with information pertaining to a group known as the Cyber Threat Intelligence League (CTIL), made up of a number of government officials, including at least a dozen from the FBI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA)…
The significance of CTIL is that some observers believe it turned out to be the “censorship ground zero” that grew to unprecedented size on both sides of the Atlantic, spawning an entire industry “dealing” with suppressing free speech on anything from Brexit to Covid, and the 2020 election.
According to the whistleblower, CTIL was essentially prompted into existence with Donald Trump’s 2016 election as president and involved representatives of both US and UK authorities, and private military contractors.
The same source claims that co-leader of CTIL is former UK defense researcher, contractor Sara-Jayne Terp, and that the group’s goal was to be preventing “a repeat of 2016” under the guise of fighting disinformation.”
“An appeals court in New York has reinstated the gag order imposed on former President Donald Trump by Justice Arthur Engoron, rejecting the former president’s bid to avoid restrictions on his freedom to speak about aspects of his civil fraud trial that he has denounced as politically motivated.
In an order issued on Nov. 30, a four-judge panel of the Supreme Court of the State of New York, Appellate Division, overturned a temporary suspension of the gag order, which initially was imposed by Justice Engoron on Oct. 3.
The newly reimposed gag order prohibits President Trump from making public statements about the judge’s staff…”
“A shooting at a bus station near Jerusalem on Thursday morning left three Israelis dead and 11 others with various injuries.
According to Israeli police, the shooting was carried out by two Hamas terrorists who drove to the Givat Shaul junction on the outskirts of the Holy City in an armed vehicle and opened fire on unsuspecting victims standing there. Police responded to the bus stop at around 7:40 a.m. local time… Israeli police said the two shooters, who were from east Jerusalem, were shot and killed by Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers in the area.”
“NBC News reports that US diplomats in the Middle East are ‘sending emails back to Washington saying their most levelheaded counterparts in the region are warning them that America’s reputation is being seriously damaged by its approach to the war'”
“A new study by the Center for Immigration Studies found 49.5 million people — around 15% of the 330 million US population — were originally born in another country.
The report also states this percentage, the highest ever recorded since the nation’s founding, has increased during Biden’s presidency, which it attributes to migrants flooding into the country during the current border crisis.
An estimated 4.5 million people have crossed the border since Biden was inaugurated in January 2021 according to the study, which it notes is a larger number of people than the population of 25 US states.”
“A Hamas source said that 10 more Israeli hostages will be released from the Gaza Strip on Thursday evening, two of them also holding Russian citizenship, as part of one-day truce extension.
Previous statements by the sides had said eight hostages and three bodies will be returned today. It appeared that the two Russian citizens could be slated for release as part of a side agreement between Hamas and Moscow, as has occurred in previous days.”
“The Michigan State Capitol in Lansing is the first state capitol in the country to use artificial intelligence (AI) to detect people brandishing firearms.
The system is called ZeroEyes and uses a powerful AI to analyze over 36,000 images per second from security camera feeds to detect firearms. ZeroEyes has been trained by the company with over one million images. It takes the system only three to five seconds from identifying a person carrying a gun to a first responder being dispatched to the scene.
After the system detects a firearm, it will notify trained monitors in the 24/7 ZeroEyes Operation Center (ZOC). The monitors will review the footage to confirm the AI findings. All ZOC technicians are either former military or law enforcement. If the human monitor determines the AI is right, they will then dispatch officers to the site.”
“Two Republican officials in rural Arizona have been criminally charged for delaying the certification of the 2022 election results, the state’s top prosecutor announced on Wednesday.
A state grand jury returned an indictment charging Peggy Suzanne Judd, 61, of Willcox, and Terry Thomas “Tom” Crosby, 64, of Sierra Vista with the felony offenses of Interference with an Election Officer and Conspiracy. Judd and Crosby both currently serve as supervisors in Cochise County, which runs along the U.S.-Mexico border…
The indictment, filed Monday in Maricopa County Superior Court, alleges that on or between Oct. 11-Dec. 1, 2022, Judd and Crosby conspired to delay the canvass of votes cast in Cochise County in the November election. Prosecutors allege that Judd and Crosby knowingly interfered with the Arizona Secretary of State’s ability to complete the statewide canvass for the 2022 election, by preventing the canvass of votes from Cochise County from occurring during the time period required by Arizona law.”
Analyst Comment: This will be an important case to watch: Do Supervisors in AZ have a right to refuse to certify an election over veracity concerns, or are they required to rubber stamp every election?
“Rice prices are on the verge of hitting new 15-year highs as the damage effects of the El Nino weather phenomenon across Asia have damaged farmlands, leading to dwindling supplies.
Thai white rice 5% broken hit $640 per ton this week. These prices are back to levels not seen since October 2008. Prices are up over 50% since the start of 2022.”
Analyst Comment: India has been restricting Rice exports amid low production in an effort to curb potential shortages in the nation. Higher rice prices typically mean higher civil unrest. Stay tuned for increased protest activity and unrest throughout Asia, Africa and the Middle East.
“Rumble, has brought a defamation case against Nandini Jammi and Claire Atkin, founders of Check My Ads. This organization, known for working to demonetize outlets by pressuring advertisers to stop running ads, stands accused of spreading false and damaging information about Rumble.”
“‘Unrealized losses’ on securities – mostly Treasury securities and government-guaranteed MBS – at FDIC-insured commercial banks at the end of Q3 jumped by $126 billion (or by 22%) from the prior quarter, to $684 billion, according to the FDIC’s quarterly bank data release on Wednesday.”
Analyst Comment: The regional banking apocalypse is not over.. just delayed. The fed will have to print faster than ever before to prevent a complete meltdown in banking.
Home sales volume down 14.6% from last year even as prices dropped 5.1% from June 2022 peak.
Analyst Comment: It looks like the housing market is breaking, which will be great news for buyers. Gov intervention can certainly interrupt a major correction though. For example, the VA recently reinstated forbearance on delinquent VA mortgages. More efforts like this could keep the bubble inflated.
The former head of Hamas called for a “Day of Jihad” today, October 13th.
Recommendations: Avoid if possible. Use caution, especially in major cities. Avoid confrontations if possible due to poor self-defense laws that favor criminals.
Analyst Comment:Unpermissive self-defense laws, biased judges and juries, high levels of crime, drug-use and homelessness and volatile civil situations: Oregon, especially Portland, are not friendly places to live in or visit.
Recommendations: Observe and be aware of military activity in your area.
Analyst Comment: There are increased reports of US military activity around the United States. During the summer, National Guard and Reserve Units conduct their annual training so it is not uncommon to see large convoys, movements, gatherings and military operations as part of this training.
Federal monetary intervention couples with pandemic lockdown policies and subsequent stimulus have created an environment for a protracted recession. This recession will have global impact and will disrupt many industries, most notable residential real estate, commercial real estate, automotive, banking, logistics, construction, and tech companies.
While the CPI remains stubbornly high, sectors like real estate, logistics, manufacturing, automotive and banking have shown signs of substantial weakness with more downside expected. Because of this bifurcated economic situation, we expect inflation to remain elevated until the economy is sufficiently broken and market sentiment readjusts. The best indicator of this is performance of the S&P 500.
The United States is the creator and enforcer of the existing global monetary system, but that is quickly changing. America has abused this privilege through unsustainable debt financing to maintain a world-leading military and the employment of financial sanctions – cutting America’s enemies out of the global financial system – that have eroded global trust in the American-led system.
Combine this with perceived weakness in American leadership, and this provides a great incentive for nations to start building an alternative global financial system. This rival system is even discussed openly under the umbrella term, multi-polar world order. The nations primarily engaged in pushing for a competing world order are China, Russia, Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia and Iran.
The process of moving from the American-dominated financial system to a world governed by two or more competing systems will be long and complicated.
Note these active indicators of dedollarization:
- New diplomatic ties established
- Reopening or construction of embassies
- Increased economic cooperation between former rivals
- Novel and largely symbolic transactions in foreign currencies (Primarily for trust building and establishment of precedent)
- Development of alternative trading blocs and economic development programs which exclude the US
- Development of alternative settlement systems to Swift
- Increased international interest in gold-backed currencies
Expect more action across the noted indicators in the future, however, there are several indicators and milestones which have not yet been fulfilled:
- Development of a new gold-backed currency
- Global de-pegging from the dollar
- Widespread adoption and use of that currency
- Undermine US efforts to stop the rise of an alternative currency
So while significant progress has been made towards removal of the US Dollar as the global reserve currency, there are still significant challenges ahead: It will be some time before potential dedollarization efforts could succeed.
If efforts to dethrone the US-led global financial system are successful, the effects on the United States will be great and terrible. The Us government relies on debt financing to continue funding the American military and social programs like social security and medicare. The end of USD reserve status means these systems could no longer be funded through new debt. Instead these systems would either have to be allowed to effectively collapse, or the US government would have to print more dollars to cover the massive shortfall, a cycle that will result in hyperinflation and the complete collapse of the economy in approx. 3-5 years.
World War III
Western nations are facing degraded ability to project their power globally. This is due to a variety of factors including aggregated bad will, indebtedness, continued public military and political failures, and internal (domestic) pressures on entrenched leaders. A growing contingent of rivals seek to overturn the western-dominated world order and replace in with a multi-polar one. These rivals include China, Russia, Brazil, Iran, North Korea, and Saudi Arabia.
As these rival factions fight for dominance under a new world order, conflict will inevitably follow. So far this conflict is taking the shape of a new cold war, dominated by secret cyber skirmishes and proxy conflicts. However, a miscalculation or provocation could quickly turn the cold war hot. A hot war between technologically advanced nuclear powers will feature new tactics like anti-satellite weapons, drone strikes, cyber attacks, infrastructure sabotage, deniable biological agent releases (including DNA-targeted viruses), high altitude nuclear detonations (EMP) and possibly even conventional nuclear strikes.
The US has become highly dependent on complex and fragile networks and systems that rivals have become quite adept at targeting. While the US military will likely remain the largest and best equipped in the world for some time, new tactics and targets have the potential to shift the battlefield in ways military planners fail to understand.
A key decision point to watch is the invasion of Taiwan. With the current US administration, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be met with a full commitment of US forces, which would quickly escalate to a hot world war. Despite this, we expect China to gradually ramp up pressure on Taiwan over the next 24 months+ as it make preparations for a complex amphibious and air assault on Taiwan.
Rise of the Popular Right
In response to the growing failures of the managerial class in the US, and the rise of woke culture inside key institutions, a new right-wing populist movement is forming. This group is gaining followers from traditional right-wingers, new right, disaffected liberals and libertarians.
This group is primarily reactionary; their focus is on stopping and undoing the cultural and institutional damage being wrought by current US leaders. As a reactionary force, they are not held to same moral or legal constraints of the right-wing of the past. If they succeed in taking over federal power structures, many adherents of this new movements will have no issue violating Constitutional rights or previous moral norms to defeat their enemy.
Most of the power of this movement is limited to state and local-level politics currently: The national GOP is still dominated by political players who do not challenge institutional corruption. For the movement to succeed, it must begin to purge the national GOP of leaders who defend the current regime. This is the next major obstacle to watch: Can this movement take over the GOP nationally? If they fail to take control of the national party, the movement may remain as coalition of state-level politicians and power-brokers, which could fuel further balkanization.
Mass Crackdown on US Gov. Dissidents
Mass crackdown is a term that encapsulates multiple phenomena including genocide, prison camps, forces labor and re-education camps. These are typically associated with authoritarian governments cracking down on dissidents, in an attempt to maintain or consolidate power.
Crackdowns can occur in a variety of ways. In a one-shot crackdown, a government engages in rapid mobilization and oppression of a targeted group, typically a small minority of the population. When targeting a larger segment of the population, incremental crackdowns are employed. These start small and gradually ramp up both in scope and in the violence of tactics.
Another less common tactic is for governments to incite supporters to attack and oppress a targeted minority group. Government officials will fuel hate against the targeted group and create a legal environment where violence against the targeted group is tolerated and even rewarded, at least socially.
There is another, perhaps more dystopian, version of a crackdown, where people are not executed or imprisoned, they are simply unpersoned. Targeted dissidents are cut off from access to financial services meaning that can no longer buy or rent a house or apartment, they can’t go to a restaurant, they can’t even buy groceries at the store. This version of a crackdown is more technologically complicated as it requires universal digital IDs, more consolidation of private businesses, expansive and sophisticated surveillance, and central bank digital currencies.
For more details on different crackdown scenarios and progress view our detailed analysis.
The cold civil war is well underway. Entrenched elites are openly spying and prosecuting their political enemies under increasingly fragile pretexts. Meanwhile, political enemies of the state are mobilizing in opposition with a majority forming that we describe as the right-wing populists. This group is large, well-resourced and holds far more power than it realizes. As the right-wing populists seek to gain power and disrupt the entrenched elite’s agenda, conflict follows.
The battle has been fought with proxies like Black Lives Matter, ANTIFA, Proud Boys and Oathkeepers. Violent confrontations remain small, but growing unrest and disillusionment of American institutions and safeguards increase the chance of larger scale violent conflicts. Additionally, left-wing extremist groups are escalating; using more dangerous attacks and weapons including firearms, fireworks and explosives. Meanwhile, government law enforcement agencies continue to find flimsy pretexts to target government dissidents. All of these trends will increase conflict, and any one conflict could become a “shot heard around the world” that galvanizes an aggressive response, turning the cold civil war hot.