“IBM has been hit with a federal civil rights complaint after James O’Keefe posted video leaked by an insider of CEO and Chairman Arvind Krishna outlining racist business practices.

‘On December 11, 2023, a tape of IBM Chief Executive Officer and Board Chairman Arvind Krishna was released on X.4 In the video, Krishna promises to fire, demote, or deny bonuses to corporate executives who either fail to meet the corporation’s racial and national origin hiring quotas or who hire too many Asian individuals,’ reads a letter from America First Legal Foundation.”


“A high-ranking American diplomat who once served at the U.S. mission in Havana appears to have been a spy for Cuba during one of the worst diplomatic crises in years between the two countries.

Manuel Rocha, a former U.S. ambassador to Bolivia who has been arrested in Miami and charged with secretly working for Cuba as a covert agent, was a principal deputy in 1996 at the U.S. Interests Section in Havana when the Cuban government shot down two planes belonging to the Miami exile organization Brothers to the Rescue. Four people were killed in the Feb. 24, 1996, incident, prompting the Pentagon to draft plans about how to retaliate.”


“Harvard University covered up a high-level investigation into whether its controversial president was a plagiarist — and used an expensive law firm to threaten The Post over our own probe.

The college announced Tuesday morning that it had investigated Claudine Gay over whether some of her academic work was plagiarized and had cleared her of breaching the college’s ‘standards for research misconduct.’

Instead, it said that she would request four corrections in two publications to insert citations and quotation marks that were originally “omitted.”

But The Post can disclose that Harvard spent weeks failing to come clean about Gay being under investigation — staying quiet even when she was hauled in front of Congress for disastrous testimony on how the Ivy League college is dealing with antisemitism on campus.

Harvard only disclosed the investigation when the university’s governing body, Harvard Corporation, said it unanimously stood behind her despite a firestorm of criticism for her evidence to Congress.”


“Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs (D) fired off a scathing letter to President Joe Biden on Friday in which she demanded $512 million in reimbursements for money the state spent trying to control the US-Mexico border. Hobbs also asked Biden to immediately reassign the National Guard to the most vulnerable border regions in order to stem the flow of migrants into the United States.”


“The U.S. has decreased its troop presence in Niger by almost half according to figures in a White House letter sent to Congress last week.

The number of U.S. troops deployed to Niger appears to be 648, according to the White House letter, down by at least 400 since September, when military forces in Niger took over the government. In October, the U.S. officially recognized the events as a coup d’etat, which restricts what it can provide to Niger in terms of hundreds of millions in foreign assistance, military training and equipment.”


According to a Heartland/Rasmussen survey, “17 percent of mail-in voters admitt[ed] to voting in a state where they are no longer permanent residents; 21 percent filling out ballots for others; 17 percent signing ballots for family members without consent, and 8 percent reporting offers of “pay” or “reward” for their vote.”


“The video hosting platform Rumble, known for advocating free speech, just experienced a severe cyber attack. This incident occurred not long after the platform began hosting new security camera footage from the events of January 6th 2021…

Soon after the footage was uploaded, Rumble suffered a significant, coordinated cyber attack. This disruption made it impossible for users to upload or view any content on the platform.”


“Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey has launched an investigation into Media Matters for America (“Media Matters”), a pro-censorship media monitoring organization, citing allegations of potentially unlawful business practices. The focus of the probe revolves around Media Matters’ strategies in targeting advertisers on social media platforms and their approach to content aimed at impacting various businesses and organizations.

Key areas of the investigation include the preservation of internal communications related to strategies for targeting advertisers on X (formerly known as Twitter), interactions with major corporations like IBM, Lionsgate Entertainment, Apple, Disney, Warner Brothers Discovery, Paramount, NBCUniversal, Comcast, Sony, Ubisoft, and Walmart, and communications with third parties about these subjects. “


“New Rumble Channel Established for Release of Jan. 6 Security Video by Congress

Nearly 40 hours of more than 40,000 hours of Capitol Police security video have been released by House Republicans since Nov. 17.”


“An Oklahoma gun dealer has been indicted on two felony and one misdemeanor counts as a result of a June 16 raid by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) on his home in Pushmataha County.

On Nov. 15, Russell Fincher was indicted on one count of engaging in the business of dealing firearms without a license, one count of selling ammunition to a prohibited person, and one misdemeanor count of making false entries in records by a federal firearms dealer.

According to the indictment, Mr. Fincher faces up to five years in prison on the first count, up to 15 years in prison for the second count, and one year for the misdemeanor. He also faces fines for each count. His trial is set for July 2, 2024.”



“‘Unrealized losses’ on securities – mostly Treasury securities and government-guaranteed MBS – at FDIC-insured commercial banks at the end of Q3 jumped by $126 billion (or by 22%) from the prior quarter, to $684 billion, according to the FDIC’s quarterly bank data release on Wednesday.”

Analyst Comment: The regional banking apocalypse is not over.. just delayed. The fed will have to print faster than ever before to prevent a complete meltdown in banking.


Home sales volume down 14.6% from last year even as prices dropped 5.1% from June 2022 peak.

Analyst Comment: It looks like the housing market is breaking, which will be great news for buyers. Gov intervention can certainly interrupt a major correction though. For example, the VA recently reinstated forbearance on delinquent VA mortgages. More efforts like this could keep the bubble inflated.


The former head of Hamas called for a “Day of Jihad” today, October 13th.


Oregon Travel Advisory

Recommendations: Avoid if possible. Use caution, especially in major cities. Avoid confrontations if possible due to poor self-defense laws that favor criminals.

Analyst Comment:Unpermissive self-defense laws, biased judges and juries, high levels of crime, drug-use and homelessness and volatile civil situations: Oregon, especially Portland, are not friendly places to live in or visit.

Increased Domestic Military Activity

Recommendations: Observe and be aware of military activity in your area.

Analyst Comment: There are increased reports of US military activity around the United States. During the summer, National Guard and Reserve Units conduct their annual training so it is not uncommon to see large convoys, movements, gatherings and military operations as part of this training.


0-3 Years

70% Likely


Federal monetary intervention couples with pandemic lockdown policies and subsequent stimulus have created an environment for a protracted recession. This recession will have global impact and will disrupt many industries, most notable residential real estate, commercial real estate, automotive, banking, logistics, construction, and tech companies.

While the CPI remains stubbornly high, sectors like real estate, logistics, manufacturing, automotive and banking have shown signs of substantial weakness with more downside expected. Because of this bifurcated economic situation, we expect inflation to remain elevated until the economy is sufficiently broken and market sentiment readjusts. The best indicator of this is performance of the S&P 500.

7-20 Years

70% Likely


The United States is the creator and enforcer of the existing global monetary system, but that is quickly changing. America has abused this privilege through unsustainable debt financing to maintain a world-leading military and the employment of financial sanctions – cutting America’s enemies out of the global financial system – that have eroded global trust in the American-led system.

Combine this with perceived weakness in American leadership, and this provides a great incentive for nations to start building an alternative global financial system. This rival system is even discussed openly under the umbrella term, multi-polar world order. The nations primarily engaged in pushing for a competing world order are China, Russia, Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

The process of moving from the American-dominated financial system to a world governed by two or more competing systems will be long and complicated.

Note these active indicators of dedollarization:

  • New diplomatic ties established
  • Reopening or construction of embassies
  • Increased economic cooperation between former rivals
  • Novel and largely symbolic transactions in foreign currencies (Primarily for trust building and establishment of precedent)
  • Development of alternative trading blocs and economic development programs which exclude the US
  • Development of alternative settlement systems to Swift
  • Increased international interest in gold-backed currencies

Expect more action across the noted indicators in the future, however, there are several indicators and milestones which have not yet been fulfilled:

  • Development of a new gold-backed currency
  • Global de-pegging from the dollar
  • Widespread adoption and use of that currency
  • Undermine US efforts to stop the rise of an alternative currency

So while significant progress has been made towards removal of the US Dollar as the global reserve currency, there are still significant challenges ahead: It will be some time before potential dedollarization efforts could succeed.

If efforts to dethrone the US-led global financial system are successful, the effects on the United States will be great and terrible. The Us government relies on debt financing to continue funding the American military and social programs like social security and medicare. The end of USD reserve status means these systems could no longer be funded through new debt. Instead these systems would either have to be allowed to effectively collapse, or the US government would have to print more dollars to cover the massive shortfall, a cycle that will result in hyperinflation and the complete collapse of the economy in approx. 3-5 years.

5-20 Years

60% Likely

World War III

Western nations are facing degraded ability to project their power globally. This is due to a variety of factors including aggregated bad will, indebtedness, continued public military and political failures, and internal (domestic) pressures on entrenched leaders. A growing contingent of rivals seek to overturn the western-dominated world order and replace in with a multi-polar one. These rivals include China, Russia, Brazil, Iran, North Korea, and Saudi Arabia.

As these rival factions fight for dominance under a new world order, conflict will inevitably follow. So far this conflict is taking the shape of a new cold war, dominated by secret cyber skirmishes and proxy conflicts. However, a miscalculation or provocation could quickly turn the cold war hot. A hot war between technologically advanced nuclear powers will feature new tactics like anti-satellite weapons, drone strikes, cyber attacks, infrastructure sabotage, deniable biological agent releases (including DNA-targeted viruses), high altitude nuclear detonations (EMP) and possibly even conventional nuclear strikes.

The US has become highly dependent on complex and fragile networks and systems that rivals have become quite adept at targeting. While the US military will likely remain the largest and best equipped in the world for some time, new tactics and targets have the potential to shift the battlefield in ways military planners fail to understand.

A key decision point to watch is the invasion of Taiwan. With the current US administration, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be met with a full commitment of US forces, which would quickly escalate to a hot world war. Despite this, we expect China to gradually ramp up pressure on Taiwan over the next 24 months+ as it make preparations for a complex amphibious and air assault on Taiwan.

0-20 Years

70% Likely

Rise of the Popular Right

In response to the growing failures of the managerial class in the US, and the rise of woke culture inside key institutions, a new right-wing populist movement is forming. This group is gaining followers from traditional right-wingers, new right, disaffected liberals and libertarians.

This group is primarily reactionary; their focus is on stopping and undoing the cultural and institutional damage being wrought by current US leaders. As a reactionary force, they are not held to same moral or legal constraints of the right-wing of the past. If they succeed in taking over federal power structures, many adherents of this new movements will have no issue violating Constitutional rights or previous moral norms to defeat their enemy.

Most of the power of this movement is limited to state and local-level politics currently: The national GOP is still dominated by political players who do not challenge institutional corruption. For the movement to succeed, it must begin to purge the national GOP of leaders who defend the current regime. This is the next major obstacle to watch: Can this movement take over the GOP nationally? If they fail to take control of the national party, the movement may remain as coalition of state-level politicians and power-brokers, which could fuel further balkanization.

2-30 Years

60% Likely

Mass Crackdown on US Gov. Dissidents

Mass crackdown is a term that encapsulates multiple phenomena including genocide, prison camps, forces labor and re-education camps. These are typically associated with authoritarian governments cracking down on dissidents, in an attempt to maintain or consolidate power.

Crackdowns can occur in a variety of ways. In a one-shot crackdown, a government engages in rapid mobilization and oppression of a targeted group, typically a small minority of the population. When targeting a larger segment of the population, incremental crackdowns are employed. These start small and gradually ramp up both in scope and in the violence of tactics.

Another less common tactic is for governments to incite supporters to attack and oppress a targeted minority group. Government officials will fuel hate against the targeted group and create a legal environment where violence against the targeted group is tolerated and even rewarded, at least socially.

There is another, perhaps more dystopian, version of a crackdown, where people are not executed or imprisoned, they are simply unpersoned. Targeted dissidents are cut off from access to financial services meaning that can no longer buy or rent a house or apartment, they can’t go to a restaurant, they can’t even buy groceries at the store. This version of a crackdown is more technologically complicated as it requires universal digital IDs, more consolidation of private businesses, expansive and sophisticated surveillance, and central bank digital currencies.

For more details on different crackdown scenarios and progress view our detailed analysis.

0-30 Years

70% Likely

Civil War

The cold civil war is well underway. Entrenched elites are openly spying and prosecuting their political enemies under increasingly fragile pretexts. Meanwhile, political enemies of the state are mobilizing in opposition with a majority forming that we describe as the right-wing populists. This group is large, well-resourced and holds far more power than it realizes. As the right-wing populists seek to gain power and disrupt the entrenched elite’s agenda, conflict follows.

The battle has been fought with proxies like Black Lives Matter, ANTIFA, Proud Boys and Oathkeepers. Violent confrontations remain small, but growing unrest and disillusionment of American institutions and safeguards increase the chance of larger scale violent conflicts. Additionally, left-wing extremist groups are escalating; using more dangerous attacks and weapons including firearms, fireworks and explosives. Meanwhile, government law enforcement agencies continue to find flimsy pretexts to target government dissidents. All of these trends will increase conflict, and any one conflict could become a “shot heard around the world” that galvanizes an aggressive response, turning the cold civil war hot.