Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko claimed Wagner Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was not in Belarus but instead could be back in Moscow or St. Petersburg after the attempted coup.

Analyst Comment: We maintain that it is more likely the Wagner coup attempt was in fact successful; Putin gave major concessions behind the scenes. This explains why no one in Wagner, the Russian military – or probable outside conspirators – have faced any consequences from Putin. Another possibility is that this was a psy-op coordinated by Putin to obscure redeployment of Wagner forces and confuse western intelligence agencies.