“The median price of new single-family houses sold in June dipped to $415,400, down by 16% from the peak in October 2022, and down 5% year-over-year (green line), according to data from the Census Bureau today.

The three month-moving average, which irons out the monthly ups and downs and revisions of the median price, fell to $414,433, the lowest since October 2021, down by 14% from the peak in December 2022 (red line). But these prices do not include the costs to the builder of mortgage-rate buydowns and other incentives…

These price cuts and lower price points pushed the median price of new houses just a hair below the median price of “used” houses – what the National Association of Realtors euphemistically calls “existing” houses, as if new houses didn’t exist. The last time this phenomenon occurred was in 2005, which tells us that the housing market is in for a reckoning.”