New home prices are dropping as overall housing supply is decreasing. It looks like things housing may be about to break:

“The median price of new single-family houses sold in August dipped by 1.4% from July, by 2.3% year-over-year, and by 13.4% from the peak in October, to $430,300, back where it had first been in November 2021…

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales of new houses fell by 8.7% from July, to 675,000 houses, which was down by 3.4% from August 2019, but was up 5.8% from the plunge last August.

Actual sales – not seasonally adjusted, and not annual rate of sales – fell to 54,000 houses, the lowest since December last year, down by 5.3% from 2019, though compared to the sales plunge a year ago, it was up by 5.9%.

So despite lower prices, ample supply (more in a moment), and large-scale mortgage-rate buydowns, sales remain below the pre-pandemic levels and well below the activity in 2021…”